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Special Report: For International Investors Looking for Exposure in China
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Each day, editor Steven Halpern posts timely and insightful commentary, market outlooks and specific stock and fund recommendations from the nation's top newsletter advisors on TheStockAdvisors.com. Here are a few recent postings regarding China and Chinese resource stocks:
"Not surprisingly, Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) has been placing particular emphasis on China, where there is plenty of untapped potential," says Paul Tracy in StreetAuthority Market Advisor, web.streetauthority.com.
"Like most companies that have been around for well over a century, Coca-Cola operates in a relatively mature industry.
"Domestically, per-capita soft-drink consumption has plateaued and domestic volume growth is generally tough to come by.
"The story is quite different for many overseas markets, which now account for about 75% of the firm's sales. Coke isn't the world's most recognized brand for nothing - consumers in 200 countries around the globe gulp down about 1.6 billion servings of its beverages every single day.
"The firm recently unveiled plans to invest over $2 billion to establish a larger footprint in the booming market in China's more remote locations. Now, it is following up on that commitment.
"Recently, Coke announced the grand opening of two new bottling facilities in the central and western provinces of Jiangxi and Xinjiang.
"These regions are far removed from the affluent and more developed cities on the eastern seaboard. But they are home to plenty of thirsty consumers - Jiangxi alone has a population of 44 million.
"Coke already controls a dominant 54% of the Chinese soft drink market - versus just 31% for rival PepsiCo. The company is moving aggressively to widen its lead by investing in marketing initiatives and key distribution infrastructure such as refrigerated coolers.
"To put the $2 billion expansion project in comparison, the firm has only invested $1.6 billion in China over the past three decades combined. It's easy to see the impetus behind this decision. The firm's sales volume jumped +19% in China, versus a -1% decline in North America last year.
"China's domestic consumption will only strengthen in 2009 thanks in part to recent stimulus measures. The country has already overtaken Brazil as Coke's third-largest market. The firm will generate more revenues in China than it does here in the U.S. within the next decade.
"Coca-Cola is making a big push for China's 1.3 billion consumers. But the company isn't neglecting other promising markets either. It now markets 80 different drinks to 900,000 retail outlets throughout the African continent.
"Meanwhile, all of this continues to translate into solid bottom-line improvement. The company just posted its ninth straight quarter of double-digit EPS growth.
"My staff and I feel China will be a powerful growth driver over the next few years, and think KO is a sound investment at prices below $56 per share."
MoneyLetter's emerging idea
"While the US recovery is provoking doubt, China's economy seems to be moving ahead to meet its growth goals," says Walter Frank. In Moneyletter, www.moneyletter.com, he eyes an Asia Pacific ETF.
"China is moving ahead despite the weak export market it faces. The Chinese equivalent to the ISM surveys - already in positive territory - moved further into positive territory in June. Obviously the Chinese stimulus is doing its job.
"Yet even with China we find the same problem that is plaguing our own markets: valuation. The huge March through May rally has left the Chinese market close to being fully valued.
"What will propel the next rally? We think the answer lies not in China, but in the US. As long as the US market remains in the doldrums, investors everywhere will continue to worry about slow growth stemming from weak global export markets.
"Strong Asian growth will help, but Asian markets cannot adequately substitute for the US market. Meanwhile, in our view, Asia remains the center of growth now and, as such, offers the best investment opportunities available.
"A new addition to our MoneyLetter universe of exchange-traded funds is the SPDR S&P Emerging Asia Pacific (NYSE: GMF).
"With almost 200 stocks in the portfolio, this fund is fairly well diversified. The top fund holding, China Mobile, accounts for 3.9% of assets and 25% of assets are in its top ten holdings.
"The underlying index is a market capitalization weighted index representing the investable universe of publicly-traded companies in emerging Asian Pacific markets, including China, Taiwan, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Phillipines.
"The index is float adjusted, meaning that only shares publicly available to investors are included in the index calculation.
"Reflecting its weighting method, the fund is predominantly invested in large-cap stocks (83%). And also in line with its market cap weighting system, its sector weights reflect the largest companies in these markets."
Indonesia: Long term winner
"Indonesia could be a long-term winner," says Daniel Frishberg. The BizRadio host and editor of The MoneyMan.com Market Newsletter, www.bizradio.com, selects a closed-end fund set to benefit.
"Countries, like companies, can provide investment opportunities when they are legitimate turn-around stories.
"Just eleven years ago, Indonesia threw off a military dictatorship and is now a peaceful democracy with a totally free press; in fact, they are the world's third largest democracy by population.
"They just had another election last week and the current president was elected for another five-year term with 60% of the vote. Given that per capita personal income doubled during his first five-year term, a strong victory was expected.
"The country has taken a business-friendly approach and intends to encourage foreign investment by reducing corruption, providing new safeguards, and decreasing regulation.
"They have sold off state-owned enterprises and reduced government debt while we are doing the exact opposite.
"Now that they have a firm mandate from the people to continue, they will embark on a major infrastructure build-out program that will improve their ports, roads, and communications systems.
"These will all help provide an even better environment for stable economic growth. They will post GDP growth of 4% for this year, one of the best rates in the world after China and India.
"They are exporters of copper, gold, coal, and nickel, but 60% of their GDP is internal consumer consumption from a growing middle class.
"To benefit from these trends, We have invested in Indonesia via a closed end fund, the Indonesia Fund (NYSE: IF).
"International investors have noticed this economic performance and rewarded it. Their stock market is up 58% this year, and it looks like the future is bright because their government is moving in the right direction."
SmartHeat: Energy savings
"SmartHeat (Nasdaq: HEAT), is a play on saving money, increasing energy efficiency, less pollution, and China's stimulus," says small cap expert Tom Bishop in BI Research, www.biresearch.com.
"In our view, the profitability of this company - maker of Plate Heat Exchangers - is only expected to improve despite the global recession.
"Installing more efficient heating and heat transfer products can save money by saving energy and by burning less energy per unit of heat, this helps to reduce pollution and thus is right up there on the list for China's $586 billion stimulus package.
"Proposed spending in China's stimulus package includes $58 billion for funding of rural and urban infrastructure and energy efficiency projects. There have been a number of developments that have pushed the stock up 47% since my initial recommendation in December.
"First the company reported earnings. Q1 is a slow quarter for the company in part due to the Chinese New Year, but SmartHeat made $0.05 a share in Q1 vs. $0.03 last year and grew revenues 102% to $6.2 million.
"Earnings of $0.60 or better now seem very doable this year, up from $0.31 in 2008. That would be 100% EPS growth.
"However, word that orders were up 5 fold over 2008's Q1 was music to investors' ears. This certainly adds credence to the company's projection that sales will more than double this year.
"All the drivers that I have been expecting are continuing to drive sales growth: saving money, saving energy, less pollution, and China's stimulus package adds wind to its back.
"Also it is interesting to note that the analyst from Rodman who follows the stock has raised his estimates 3 times now in as many months.
"Most recently after the company announced the $10 million acquisition of one of the largest manufacturers of plate heat exchangers in China. Located in Siping - not far from SmartHeat's existing facilities - the company expects this will be immediately accretive adding $1.8 million, or $0.07 a share, to 2009 EPS.
"While SmartHeat makes the plate heat exchangers, the acquired company also makes the plates allowing SmartHeat to vertically integrate this important upstream component, for at least part of its plate heat exchangers.
"This acquisition also gives the company a much bigger foot in the door with the chemical and petroleum industries and even the electric power industry, big markets. The PE on 2009 EPS is a still modest 12 and the the stock continues to earn our BI Rank of 'buy'."
China funds for growth and income
"China is one of the hardest places on the planet to find high yields," says income specialist Carla Pasternak.
However, in her High Yield Investing, web.streetauthority.com, she suggests, "We found some select China funds that do offer a dividend yield along with tremendous long-term potential." Here, she looks at two favorites: Oberweis China Opportunities (OBCHX) and Matthews China (MCHFX).
"I think we're in the early stages of China's economic boom, and I believe the country can continue to grow at a high single-digit pace for the next decade; if that happens, then plenty of Chinese companies will provide handsome returns for their shareholders.
"The Oberweis China Opportunities is taking full advantage of some of China's best investing opportunities. It invests at least 80% of its assets in Chinese securities. The fund generally invests in small and mid-cap companies, and its holdings have an average market cap of about $850 million.
The fund was launched in October 2005. OBCHX then put up impressive numbers in 2006 and 2007 (+81.2%, +59.3%) before succumbing to the 2008 downturn, when it lost -64.3%.
"So far in 2009, OBCHX has gained +61.8%. The fund carries a 2.0% expense ratio and requires a minimum investment of $1,000.
"Based in Hong Kong, manager Vanessa Shiu uses strict guidelines in her selections. One of these guidelines is that a company's stock must have outperformed at least 75% of other stocks in the market over the preceding twelve months.
"Another is that the selections must be experiencing rapid growth in revenue from internal growth. While these criteria, and others, limit Shiu's options, they limit her to the best and fasting growing companies in the region.
"The fund generally pays annual distributions in December of each year. In 2007, the fund made a distribution of $2.04 per share, and it 2008, it paid $2.765 per share.
"The shares of OBCHX are currently trading at a price of $12.78, giving the fund a trailing 12-month yield of 21.6%. The majority of the fund's distributions have historically come from long-term capital gains.
"If the Chinese economy continues to grow as expected, OBCHX will be a clear winner. This is largely due to its stock-selection style, which is much bolder than most other China funds.
"Keep in mind that due to its bias for smaller companies, the fund will continue to be more volatile than other China funds. That said, the company offers great income potential for those who don't mind capital gains and a slightly wilder ride up.
"Matthews China is another mutual fund focused on Chinese stocks. Unlike the Oberweis fund, however, MCHFX focuses on larger companies. The average market cap of its holdings is $6.0 billion.
"The fund was launched in February 1998, and since then has put up excellent numbers. The fund has returned an average of +11.7% annually. Its three-year returns come to +18.4%, and its one-year performance is down -18.0%.
"So far in 2009, MCHFX has gained +37.6% - outperforming the MSCI China index (and most of its peers) by. The fund carries a 1.3% expense ratio, is no-load, and requires a minimum investment of $2,500.
"MCHFX generally pays distributions in December of each year. In 2008, the fund made a payment of $5.94 per share, predominantly from long-term capital gains. At the current price of $20.02, that gives the fund a trailing 12-month yield of 28.1%.
"The fund experienced a heavy loss of -49% in 2008, but it has already made much of that ground back in 2009. The fund's gain of +37.6% so far this year puts it about five and a half percentage points above the benchmark MSCI China Index.
"The portfolio's discretionary holdings bounced back strongly in recent months on news that the Chinese government's efforts to boost consumer confidence were proving effective.
"With its giant yield and its stellar historical performance, this large-cap fund is well-suited for moderately risk averse investors looking for exposure in China."
Duoyuan: Water pollution in China
"Decades of rampant economic growth have taken their toll on Chinese waterways; a recent survey found that nearly all - 95% - of urban water samples were polluted," explains China expert Tony Sagami.
In his Asia Stock Alert, www.asiastockalert.com, he suggests, "Duoyuan Global Water (NYSE: DGW) recently went public on the NYSE; I believe it's the most profitable way to profit from China's desperate need to clean up its polluted water."
"Much of China's meager water supply isn't safe to drink. One-third of the country's rural population - an estimated 360 million people - does not have access to safe drinking water because more than 70% of China's rivers and lakes are polluted.
"Nearly half of China's 640 major cities face water shortages, with 100 facing severe shortages. Some 278 cities in China don't have any wastewater treatment facilities whatsoever and dump raw sewage directly into their local waterways.
"The amount of sewage and industrial effluents discharged into Chinese rivers and lakes is rising each year, with over 200 million tons released last year.
"Sadly, so much of China's water is so badly polluted that hundreds of thousands of Chinese are afflicted each year with water-borne diseases - the result of unsafe drinking water.
"Unfortunately, the situation is going to get even worse. There is only one solution to China's severe water pollution problem: Money. Tons and tons of money.
"Somebody is going to get very, very rich by helping China solve its pollution problem. So what's the best way to grab a piece of that very juicy pie?
"Duoyuan Global Water makes water treatment equipment, such as filtration, water softening, water sediment separation, disinfection, and reverse osmosis
"And get this: Duoyuan sells its products throughout all 28 Chinese provinces - to a range of business, residential, and utility customers.
"Founded in 1992, Duoyuan has been profitable every year since its inception. In 2008, revenues and profits surged by 42% and 63%, respectively, from the previous year. That's on the heels of the 40% and 39% revenue and profit growth reported in 2007.
"Just as impressive is management's ability to keep a tight lid on expenses. Cost of sales decreased from 60.2% to 54.9% over the last 12 months.
"We consider the stock a compelling value. Duoyuan made $19.5 million of net profits in 2008, and with 21 million post-IPO shares, that works out to 92 cents earnings per share. The stock is currently in the low $20s, so it has a P/E of approximately 25 times earnings.
"If you're tempted to consider a stock with a P/E of 25 expensive ... don't. Fast-growing companies with a dependable business model always sell at premium P/Es.
"And Duoyuan is perfectly positioned to cash in for years from the Chinese government's completely funded commitment to clean water. I believe this stock has the potential to be a big winner."
KongZhong (Nasdaq: KONG), a Chinese mobile telecom player, is a recent featured buy from Leo Fasciocco, a technician focused on breakout situations in his The Ticker Tape Digest, www.tickertapedigest.com.
"The firm said it is one of the largest mobile game publisher/developers in China. It sells its products through the Chinese telecom carriers' networks.
"The company generally receives 60% to 85% of the revenue for services delivered and pays the remainder to these operators for transmission and service fees. The firm relies on these carriers to collect money from its customers.
"The stock came public back in 2004. The shares made their peak around 15, before pulling lower due to the severe bear market. This year the stock has rallied strongly. Indeed, it has been a star performer, rising 180% the past 12 months versus a 25% drop in the S&P 500 index.
"After surging from 4 earlier this year to 10, the stock has rested and formed a flat base. The base was well formed showing tightness in price and a contraction in volume. Its move above $10.23 on four times its normal daily volume can be viewed as an ideal breakout.
"The stock's accumulation - distribution line is in a strong up trend and has broken out to the upside today. That is good confirmation that the breakout comes with good buying.
"Revenue growth is running at 38%. The company is making acquisition to expand its operations. The firm said it is one of the largest mobile game publisher/developers in China.
"KONG is a small cap Chinese stock that is moving up sharply. We are targeting KONG for a run to 14.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 9.80 and should be honored. We rate KONG a speculative intermediate-term play."
"Rail stocks are a good barometer of economic health in the US; what about booming China?" asks Brandon Clay. In Invest with an Edge, he eyes Guangshen Railway (NYSE: GSH).
"As such, it stands poised to benefit as China's economy does the only thing it knows how to do: grow. Oddly enough, Guangshen is the only railroad listed on the NYSE based in a country other than the U.S. or Canada.
"Guangshen Railway should benefit from China's growing appetite for infrastructure projects. After all, someone has to move all that steel and other construction materials across a very large country.
"Rail operators like Guangshen will also be counted on to deliver oil, coal, copper and other commodities to destinations throughout mainland China.
"The stock, which yields 2.5%, has returned more than 28% thus far in 2009. Guangshen is reasonably valued compared to other China stocks at less than 19 times earnings for the trailing 12 months.
"Keep in mind this is a mega-cap name, with a market cap of $167B. You can look at it as a core holding for any China portfolio, but don't expect a grand slam.
"Guangshen actually made money in 2008 while enduring some of the worst headwinds a transportation company can face.
"Hollywood could not have scripted a worse picture for Guangshen, which saw its profits erode due to higher fuel costs, a catastrophic snowstorm, and weak shipping demand. Yet, the company was profitable.
"GSH looks to be a prime beneficiary of China's $500 billion+ economic stimulus package, which is partly responsible for a fourth consecutive increase in the Chinese Producer Manufacturing Index, released today.
"In a hot bed of economic growth with a strong balance sheet, Guangshen Rail is a great way to get involved in China's infrastructure boom. To buy into continued Chinese development, go with GSH."
Outperformance for Asia Small Cap
"Matthews Asia Small Companies Fund (MSMLX) was among the top-performing funds of the first half of 2009, with a return of more than 47%," says Mark Salzinger.
In his No-Load Fund Investor, www.noloadfundinvestor.com, he suggests, "Though volatile, it wouldn't surprise us in the least if Matthews Asia Small Cap turned out to be one of the top-performing funds we cover over the next decade." Here is the fund's expert's review.
"The fund has benefited so far this year from its focus on China and India, two of the year's best-performing stock markets.
"However, the fund's mandate to invest in developing Asia's small companies also has been a boon.
"Generally speaking, small Asian companies tend to be more targeted to their domestic economies and less export oriented than many large Asian companies.
"With domestic demand throughout some developing Asian countries holding up better than demand in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan, the domestic focus has benefited small Asian companies disproportionately.
"The small-cap market in Asia has developed considerably over the past five years; about 2,000 small caps in developing Asia have come public during this time, increasing the total number of such companies to more than 8,000 (vs. about 6,000 in the U.S.).
"Matthews certainly has the experience to manage a small-cap Asia offering successfully. An Asia-only investment firm, Matthews has traditionally focused more on midsize and smaller companies than its peers.
"Matthews Asia Small Companies opened for business last September, in the middle of one of the worst periods ever for equity investing.
"In recognition of the difficult times in which the fund was launched, the fund's lead manager, Lydia So, initially favored small companies that she believed offered high levels of quality and durability. In recent months, as the global economic crisis has abated somewhat, she has added some riskier holdings.
"Assisted especially by co-manager Noor Kamruddin, who formerly managed a global technology fund with an emphasis on small caps, So favors stocks with market capitalizations of $3 billion or less experiencing strong growth in expanding industries and markets.
"Before adding a stock to the fund, at least one member of the team speaks with management and often visits the company. So wants to be as sure as possible that each holding in the fund has a management team that's dedicated to success and holds itself accountable
"She looks for financially strong companies with strong cash flows and relatively predictable earnings. That's one reason, she says, that she prefers companies in growth industries as opposed to companies in cyclical industries, where earnings are impacted heavily by volatile, external forces.
"Like the managers of other Matthews funds, So attempts to form a portfolio reflective of how developing Asia may develop over the next several years rather than how it looks right now.
"Fluent in Cantonese and conversational in Mandarin, So does much of the duo's frontline analysis for China/Hong Kong and East Asia stocks generally.
"Fluent in Hindi, Kamruddin is the frontline analyst of Indian stocks. (Michael Han, co-manager of Matthews Korea and a native speaker of Korean, provides assistance with Korean stocks.)
"After the huge rebound in small-cap Asian stocks so far this year, the investment area is no longer the great value it apparently was six months ago.
"However, it's still attractive. Weighted by the sizes of its holdings, the fund's price/earnings ratio is less than 10. That's lower than what you'll find in most other equity markets right now.
"Matthews Asia Small Companies is designed to hold between 50 and 70 stocks at any one time. Matthews has agreed to limit the fund's expense ratio to 2% until at least April 30, 2012. While 2% may seem high, it shouldn't make or break your decision of whether or not to invest.
"First, the returns of the fund are likely to be so volatile (whether up or down) that the expense ratio will be swamped by the performance of the fund's holdings.
"Second, the 2% figure is as likely to be a ceiling as a floor. On its other funds, Matthews charges very reasonable expense ratios, especially as compared to other specialists in international investing and emerging markets.
"Consider Matthews Asia Small Companies if you want to position yourself aggressively to benefit from likely growth in the middle classes of domestic economies within developing Asia, especially China and India.
"And, if you buy now, you get in when the fund is young, small and flexible, with only about $20 million in assets."
A 'concrete' idea in China
"China will account for about 40% of cement consumption in 2010," says Konrad Kuhn. In The Kon-Lin Letter, www.konlin.com, he looks at China Advanced Construction Materials (Other OTC: CADC).
"China has been referred to as the world's largest construction site, using mor than 50% of the world's cranes. It accounts for half of all building activity in the world.
"The Chinese government's continued efforts to modernize the country's infrastructure is exemplified by such massive projects as the South-North Water Diversion, designed to redirect water to the northern plains from Central and South China.
"This project alone will account for cement consumption of over 1 million metric tons per year; this project will take an estimated 40 years to be completed.
"Much of China's $586 billion stimulus package is allocated towards infrastructure projects, a key focus of China Advanced Construction.
"The company produces and supplys advanced ready-mix concrete materials for large scale projects including roads, railways, airports, bridges, tunnels, skyscrapers and dams. It is now involved in 6 high-speed railway project.
"The company has become a leading materials provider to some of Bejing's prestigious projects including the new CCTV broadcasting site, the Beijing-Tianjin rail and railway station, the Olympic Park stadium and Swimming Cube and the Beijing Capital Airport.
"As architectural designs have become more complex, the need for CADC's high-end specialty concrete products has been accelerating.
"China's concrete market has maintained an average annual growth rate of 25% over the past 10 years and its 2007. The company's revenues for the first nine months of fiscal 2009 rose 27% to $25.2 million, with earnings of $0.46 per diluted share vs. $0.43 for the same period in the prior year.
"A current backlog in excess of 1.5 million cubic meters of concrete (through June '09) provides visibility to future revenues and earnings. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with working capital of $8 million and no long term debt.
"Much of China's $586 billion stimulus package is allocated towards infrastructure projects, a key focus of CADC, which is now involved in 6 high-speed railway project. As architectural designs have become more complex, the need for CADC's high-end specialty concrete products has been accelerating.
"The stock recently broke out to the upside and rose to $3.85 before pulling back. We now have a first price objective for the stock of 5 to 5 1/2."
"Inflationary fears and the desire to generate higher returns in non-dollar assets should boost BRIC stocks (Brazil, Russia, India and China)," says Chuck Carlson in his The DRIP Investor.
"Despite the run-up this year, BRIC stock markets are still reasonably valued. Russia, India, and Brazil all trade at price/earnings ratios similar to the U.S.
"And while China's stock market does trade at a premium to the U.S., China's economic growth will swamp that of the U.S. this year and for the foreseeable future.
"Bottom line: When considering where to allocate international dollars, the case for a greater allocation to BRIC countries is compelling.
"Among the BRIC stocks, I especially like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and China Mobile (NYSE: CHL).
"Baidu, based in China, provides Internet search services primarily in China and Japan. The company is often compared to Google in terms of its dominance in the search market in China.
"China Mobile, based in Hong Kong, operates the world's largest mobile network with the world's largest mobile subscription base of more than 477 million subscribers. The company commands roughly 70% of the wireless market in China.
"India-based companies worth considering include Dr. Reddy's Labs (NYSE: RDY), a pharmaceutical concern; Infosys Technology (Nasdaq: INFY), a systems software firm; HDFC Bank (NYSE: HDB), a banking concern; and Wipro (NYSE: WIT), an Information technology company."
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